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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|