Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.